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Land Cover Mapping and Wood Energy Analysis
of Darfur's Internally Displaced Populations (IDP) regions [ ] |
| FAO - NRL - DARFUR (OSRO/SUD/823/UEP) |
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Abstract
As part of the ongoing Timber and Energy Project,
FAO and UNEP have established a collaboration to conduct the analysis
of the wood energy situation in Darfur, with special reference to the
Internally Displaced Populations (IDP). Outputs of this analysis are
decision support products for strategic wood energy planning. Main
goals include securing subsistence energy supply to vulnerable
populations while at the same time reducing the unsustainable
pressure on the resources of the region. FAO's Wood fuel
Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping (WISDOM) methodology
and Global Land Cover Network (GLCN) standards and tools are applied.
Scope and approach
The scope of this initiative was to analyze the wood energy situation
in Darfur with special reference to the Internally Displaced Populations
(IDP) and to provide the basis for strategic wood energy planning in
order to secure subsistence energy supply to vulnerable populations
whilst reducing at the same time the unsustainable pressure on the
resources of the region. Five sites were identified during the project
formulation, namely Mellit, Kutum, Al Fasher, Al Geneina and Nyala,
representing zones with high presence of IDP Camps, but they are not
the only ones since many of such camps are distributed throughout the
central region of Darfur States.
In order to carry on a comprehensive analysis involving all sectors
of consumption (IDPs, resident users, commercial and industrial
sectors) and all possible sources of woodfuels located in the Darfur
area, the Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping (WISDOM)
methodology was adopted.
Woodfuel Integrated Supply/Demand Overview Mapping (WISDOM)
WISDOM is meant to create a spatially-explicit knowledge base on supply
and demand of woody (and non-woody) biomass for energy and thus to serve
as a planning tool for highlighting and determining priority areas of
intervention and to focus planning options. The result of the wall-to-wall
supply/demand balance analysis is then used as starting point for
the delineation of the necessary supply areas for existing or hypothetical
consumption sites.
The WISDOM methodology may be divided into two sequential stages of analysis:
- WISDOM Base. Analysis over the entire territory of the study area.
- Woodshed analysis. Delineation of sustainable supply
zone of selected consumption sites using the result of the WISDOM Base.
Depending on scale and objectives of the analysis, the selected
sites could be urban centres, rural villages or existing/planned biomass plants.
Methodology
To assure good analysis efficiency, an iterative process was implemented
based on three phases:
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Rapid WISDOM appraisal: The demand for woodfuels and the potential
sustainable supply is estimated and mapped on the basis of readily
available geo-statistical data and "reasonable" assumptions.
The results are used for the first cautious delineation of the territory needed for
the sustainable woodfuel supply (woodshed). Such woodshed zone represents
the target area of the subsequent phases of the project.
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Mapping and data collection within the preliminary woodshed zone:
Within the woodshed territory defined during the first phase (340.000 Km2),
a new land cover mapping is carried out and up-to-date information on
consumption patterns and supply potential is collected.
The final land cover map is produced with eight aggregated classes of
land cover according to:
- natural vegetation or agriculture,
- dominant layer such as herbaceous, shrub or tree, and
- crown cover density, closed to open 100-40%, very open 40-10%,
or sparse 1-10%.
Most of the study area is covered by natural vegetation, and within the
natural vegetation class, the herbaceous cover has the widest distribution.
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Detailed WISDOM Darfur analysis: In the detailed WISDOM analysis,
all the assumptions made during the Rapid WISDOM Appraisal were reviewed
on the basis of the new land cover data and more detailed local information.
The spatial resolution was increased to 100 m cell size (1 hectare).
Concerning administrative data, the level of analysis was increased to
lower administrative units as far as this was supported by the available data.
WISDOM consists of modules on demand, supply, integration and woodshed
analysis. Each module is developed in total autonomy using existing
information and analytical tools and is directed to the collection,
harmonization, cross-referencing and geo-referencing of relevant
existing information for the area of study.
- The Demand module produces the best possible assessment and mapping
of current wood consumption pattern.
- The Supply module generates the woody biomass supply potential.
Accurate and up-to-date land cover data is essential for this analysis.
- The Integration analysis calculates the balance of demand and
supply, by producing maps and statistics.
- The Woodshed analysis generates woodshed zones assuming medium
productivity variant, Business As Usual (BAU) and Fuel Efficient Stoves
(FES) demand variants, and the sustainable management of all wood resources.
Findings
WISDOM Darfur is conceived as a strategic planning tool to be maintained,
deepened and most importantly used by forestry, energy and rural
development planners, emergency and relief operators, etc., concerned
with wood energy planning, environmental impact assessment, integrated
land management, etc..
The results of this project can be summarized as follow:
- The total annual consumption of woody biomass, all uses included,
is estimated at 5.9 million m3;
- The household sector is by far the most important demand sector
with its 93 % of the total woody biomass consumption (mostly for
cooking);
- Fuel Efficient Stoves (FES) are dominant in IDP camps. The dissemination
of FES outside IDP camps in rural and urban households, may reduce
the total consumption of fuelwood by a maximum of 1.1 million m3
(from 5.9 to 4.8 million m3).
- The total stock of woody biomass in the area of interest (including
Darfur states excluding extreme south and desertic north) was estimated
at 94 million m3, or 55 million oven-dry tons;
- The supply/demand balance shows an overall surplus of 1.2 million
(BAU demand) or 1.8 million (full impact of the FES consumption variant)
oven-dry tons. These results indicate that there is a theoretical
sustainable potential but give no guarantee of economic sustainability;
- Woodshed analysis revealed the extent of territory around consumption
sites (IDP camps, in this case) that must be managed for woodfuel
production in order to meet the demand, according to various supply
and demand scenarios;
- The analysis of supply/demand balance around IDP camps (see example
in the Figure below) allowed to determine the probable Non Renewable
Biomass (NRB) fraction associated to current supply systems and thus
the associated risks of degradation and deforestation (serious in north
Darfur and intermediate in the south).
Figure: IDP camps' woodshed with pre-defined cost-distance values.
In this example the assumed value is 36 km on a flat accessible terrain
or equivalent effort over rough and steep terrains, divided into 3 sub-zones.
- In Darfur many formations are too scarce in woody biomass to
justify management costs and therefore, in order to determine a
realistic supply zone, the analysis considered various minimum
per hectare surplus thresholds (see graph below).
Graph: Woodfuel supply/demand balance in Darfur States. From left:
theoretical balance (Medium productivity vs. BAU and FES demand variants);
"commercial" balances relative to minimum woody biomass surplus thresholds
of 200, 150 and 100 od kg*ha-1*year-1.
In West Darfur, in order to meet the demand, the minimum should be posed at 200 kg/ha/yr
(which means approximately 3 tons of harvestable wood per hectare on
a 15-years rotation). In South Darfur such limit should be posed at
150 g/ha/yr while in North Darfur, where the resource is particularly
scarce, the limit should be posed at 100 kg/ha/yr. These limits are
very low and probably in good part uneconomical but they indicate the
challenge that resource management strategies will have to face in
Darfur regions. Comparing these limits to those adopted by local
operators on commercial considerations will help to determine the
alternative remedial action such as tree planting and the promotion/subsidizing
of alternative fuels.
Conclusions
- Darfur seems to have the theoretical potential to produce the
woody biomass necessary to satisfy the current demand.
- Spontaneous and unplanned harvesting (which cause degradation and
depletion of natural resources) should be converted into sustainable
wood energy systems, but it will require major efforts.
- Alternative livelihood strategies for rural populations currently
dedicated to fuelwood and charcoal production for sale at IDP camp
sites should be provided where such production is clearly unsustainable.
Where the resources are adequate, this source of revenue should be
consolidated through sustainable management systems. It is evident that
options must be locally tailored in order to be effective.
- The imminent separation of Sudan into two independent nations will
exacerbate the woodfuel deficit of north Sudan, given its high demand
and its limited supply sources. Thus, the WISDOM analysis over the
rest of north Sudan will be instrumental in the identification of
critical situations and in the definition of remedial strategies.
WISDOM Darfur is still in its "prototype" version and refers to the
situation between 2008 and 2009. Area of improvement is data quality
and reliability.
Recommendations
Immediately:
- Convert current prototype into a structured information system,
including protocols for update and maintenance and a user-friendly
interface for consultation and querying by non-technical users.
- Complement the biomass component with other essential natural
resources thematic layers such as water, farming systems and livestock,
poverty and vulnerability, in order to allow integrated cross-sectoral
analyses.
- To cope with the likely woodfuel crisis that will follow the
separation of Sudan in two nations, it is highly recommended to
carry out a WISDOM analysis over the remaining territory of north
Sudan, in order to identify critical situations, and over South
Sudan in order to rationalize its bioenergy potential.
Longer term:
- Promote programmes of capacity building, fuel efficient stoves
(FES) in rural and urban areas, planting and agro-forestry in the
areas surrounding IDP camps;
- Participatory sustainable forest management and woodfuel production
practices;
- Biomass stock and productivity assessment;
- Implement governance and management plans.
FAO, Rome, February 9, 2011
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